Really nuanced take on an impossible situation. Your breakdown of the parallel state makes alot of sense for why reform never worked. When I studied comparative regimes in gradschool, the three characteristics you cite were always key. The moral question is tough tho when the opposition is openly asking for help but critics expect them to overthrow a brutal theocracy barehanded.
Yes, I think the parallel state concept is crucial to understanding the survival of the regime, and why it has been able to exist with this duality of utter tyranny at home while sending its "reformist" presidents out to the world to plead peace and co-operation. All a complete ruse that our gullible media is so eager to lap up, desperate to disconfirm that political Islamism is as horrific as the regime shows it to be.
Interesting to hear that you've come across those themes of authoritarian regime survival before; may I ask what you studied in grad school?
The moral question is indeed tough. Even beyond more immediate action against the regime, were it to fall, I worry that some of the Arab states and Turkey would try to flood the zone with shit, so to speak, and send in Islamist militias to disrupt any prospects of a secular, democratic Iran getting on its feet. I also worry the IRGC just makes a power grab, ditches the mullahs, but essentially turns Iran into Russia 2.0. Who knows...it's a headache.
Thank you, Alan Flanagan, for your historically-informed analysis of the situation and your call for foreign intervention that is calibrated with extreme care.
You note that those opposing intervention in Iran offer no cogent alternative. Not coincidentally, these are most often the same people who denounced the Gaza war without proposing a better way for Israel to protect itself from renewed genocidal attacks.
You also observe that foreign intervention in Iran is already occurring in the shape of Iraqi Shia (and Hezbollah) militias. On the face of it, this further strengthens the regime. But couldn't the recourse to Iraqi and Lebanese militias be a sign that the regime is losing confidence in the willingness of its own military forces to continue slaughtering Iranians?
Really nuanced take on an impossible situation. Your breakdown of the parallel state makes alot of sense for why reform never worked. When I studied comparative regimes in gradschool, the three characteristics you cite were always key. The moral question is tough tho when the opposition is openly asking for help but critics expect them to overthrow a brutal theocracy barehanded.
Thanks mate, I appreciate that.
Yes, I think the parallel state concept is crucial to understanding the survival of the regime, and why it has been able to exist with this duality of utter tyranny at home while sending its "reformist" presidents out to the world to plead peace and co-operation. All a complete ruse that our gullible media is so eager to lap up, desperate to disconfirm that political Islamism is as horrific as the regime shows it to be.
Interesting to hear that you've come across those themes of authoritarian regime survival before; may I ask what you studied in grad school?
The moral question is indeed tough. Even beyond more immediate action against the regime, were it to fall, I worry that some of the Arab states and Turkey would try to flood the zone with shit, so to speak, and send in Islamist militias to disrupt any prospects of a secular, democratic Iran getting on its feet. I also worry the IRGC just makes a power grab, ditches the mullahs, but essentially turns Iran into Russia 2.0. Who knows...it's a headache.
In akharin nabarde…
Pahlavi Barmigardeh!
💚🤍❤️
Thank you, Alan Flanagan, for your historically-informed analysis of the situation and your call for foreign intervention that is calibrated with extreme care.
You note that those opposing intervention in Iran offer no cogent alternative. Not coincidentally, these are most often the same people who denounced the Gaza war without proposing a better way for Israel to protect itself from renewed genocidal attacks.
You also observe that foreign intervention in Iran is already occurring in the shape of Iraqi Shia (and Hezbollah) militias. On the face of it, this further strengthens the regime. But couldn't the recourse to Iraqi and Lebanese militias be a sign that the regime is losing confidence in the willingness of its own military forces to continue slaughtering Iranians?